高盛：2025年全球视角（寻找市场被低估的机会）

在全球经济环境日益复杂的背景下，高盛这篇报告从多角度探讨了投资者面临的机遇与挑战，并提供了实用的策略建议。本文涵盖了市场集中度提升对投资的影响、多元化配置的重要性，以及不同地区和行业的潜在投资机会，包括美国科技板块、中型股、欧洲市场的“杠铃式”策略和亚洲市场的机会。同时，还详细分析了通胀、利率变化、资产表现分化等因素对市场的深远影响。

Where are we headed?

1. Following the past couple of years of high inflation and interest rates, we are entering a more benign stage of the economic cycle. The prospects for continued global growth remain positive and our economists have reduced their implied US recession probability to 15% over the next 12 months – in line with the unconditional average. This cycle is also evolving in a more ‘typical’ way relative to the post fiscal crisis cycle with its sub-trend growth and zero interest rates (Exhibit 1). In comparison, while economic activity in other regions remains weaker, our economists forecast global real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025 (similar to the past couple of years).

Meanwhile, most G10 central banks have commenced a journey of steady interest rate cuts, and China has also eased monetary policy aggressively.

未来的方向在哪？

过去几年，我们经历了高通胀和高利率的冲击，现在的经济周期进入了一个相对平稳的阶段。全球经济增长的势头依然向好。我们的经济学家将未来12个月内美国经济衰退的可能性下调到15%，这一概率与历史平均水平差不多。相比金融危机后那种低增长、零利率的特殊时期，这一轮经济周期的表现更接近“常规”（见图1）。

其他地区的经济活动表现略显疲软，但我们的预测显示，到2025年，全球实际GDP增速可能还是能达到2.7%，基本延续了过去几年的水平。

多数G10国家的央行已经开始陆续下调利率，中国则采取了更加积极的货币宽松政策。这种政策转向，或将为未来的经济增长注入更多动力。

2. From an equity market perspective, the impact of a rate-cutting cycle has varieddepending, largely, on the economic cycle. A combination of continued economicgrowth with a rate-cutting cycle tends to be positive for global equities (Exhibit 2). It isonly when a recession follows the interest rate cuts that equities usually underperform.Our view is that the global economy and corporate profits will continue to grow through2025 while interest rates will be trending lower; this combination suggests the broadbackdrop for equities should be positive.

从股市的角度看

降息周期对股市的影响并不固定，很大程度上是取决于经济周期的阶段。如果经济增长持续，同时伴随着降息，通常会对全球股市形成利好（见图2）。如果降息后接踵而至的是经济衰退，股市表现往往会受到拖累。

我们认为，全球经济和企业利润将持续增长至少到2025年，而利率则可能继续呈下降趋势。这种组合，意味着整体来看，股市的环境应该是相对有利的。

3. Nevertheless, while the cyclical conditions for equities are supportive, there are structural factors that are likely to constrain the aggregate progression of index returns. This means that alpha should become a more important driver of returns with a broadening opportunity set within and across equity markets. One of the structural dynamics at play is that government debt levels are high and often rising. As Exhibit 3 shows, the Debt-to-GDP ratio for the Developed Markets is at the highest level for many decades, while Emerging Markets are also seeing rising debt.

This, together with rising term premia, suggests that while short-term interest rates will fall, longer-term interest rates are unlikely to come down (Exhibit 4).

股市的长期增长仍面临限制

虽然当前的经济周期对股市来说是有利的，但一些结构性因素可能会限制整体指数收益的增长空间。这意味着，未来驱动回报的关键更多会来自精选个股的“超额收益”，而不是单纯依赖整体市场的上涨。一个重要的结构性问题是，全球政府债务水平普遍处于高位，并且在持续攀升。如图3所示，发达市场的债务与GDP比率已达到几十年来的最高水平，新兴市场的债务也在快速增加。

再加上期限溢价的上升，意味着虽然短期利率可能会下降，但长期利率未必会同步回落（见图4）。

4. ‘Higher for longer’ bond yields can cap the upside potential for broad equity indices as the Equity Risk Premium has fallen back to the low levels seen in the early part of this century (Exhibit 5).

At the same time, equity index valuations, at least in the US market, are at the top of their longer-term range. Exhibit 6 shows a simple comparison of P/E ratios based on consensus 12m forward earnings estimates. Certainly, part of the US premium can be explained by the higher valuations of the dominant Tech companies, but the exhibit shows that the market is still on a high valuation even excluding these companies. While our US strategists argue that these valuations are in line with their macro model of fair value, most of the return for the US market is likely to come from earnings over the next couple of years. Stronger growth has prompted our US team to upgrade their forecasts for the S&P 500 EPS to $268 (+11% year/year) from $256 (+6%) and introduce a 2026 EPS estimate of $288 (+7%). Their 12-month target, now at 6300 (from 6000), implies 10% upside over the next year.

更高的债券收益率可能压制股市涨幅

长期债券收益率若持续处于“高位且持久”状态，可能限制股票指数的上行空间，尤其是在当前权益风险溢价已经回落至21世纪初低位的背景下（见图5）。

股票指数的估值，尤其是美国市场，已处于历史长期区间的高位。图6显示了基于未来12个月盈利预期的市盈率对比。虽然科技巨头的主导地位是推动美国市场高估值的主要原因，但即便剔除这些公司，美国市场的整体估值仍然偏高。我们的美国策略团队认为这一估值水平符合其宏观模型定义的“合理价值”，但未来几年，美国市场的回报可能更多依赖企业盈利的实际增长。

美国经济的强劲表现促使我们的美国团队上调了标普500指数的每股收益（EPS）预测：2024年EPS由256美元（同比增长6%）上调至268美元（同比增长11%），并首次预测2026年EPS为288美元（同比增长7%）。此外，标普500指数的12个月目标点位从6000点上调至6300点，这意味着未来一年仍有约10%的上涨空间。

5. Other equity markets are trading in line with their historical averages, but look much cheaper relative to their bond markets and the US. This relative discount has been true for most of the past decade and, while the US has consistently outperformed, this has been explained by its superior profit growth (Exhibit 7).

Nevertheless, looking forward, the gaps in growth rates of EPS across the major regions is narrowing. This is not a good reason to underweight the US, but rather to selectively look at undervalued opportunities in other markets to increase diversification and enhance risk-adjusted returns. Only Euroe continues to lag in terms of profit growth prospects (Exhibit 8), reflecting both a weaker economic backdrop and sector composition.

This is not a good reason to underweight the US; a comparison of the P/E to expected earnings growth (Exhibit 9) suggests that the US equity market continues to justify its premium valuation.

Global fund flows have strongly favoured the US, however, at the expense of other markets (for good reason), and there remain some relative discounts in the other markets, suggesting that there are at least some selective opportunities to broaden exposure to enhance risk-adjusted returns.

其他市场估值相对较低，值得关注

相比债券市场和美国股市，其他股票市场的估值普遍更低，处于历史平均水平。这种折价在过去十年间持续存在。虽然美国股市表现优异，但主要得益于更强劲的利润增长（见图7）。

展望未来，各主要地区的每股收益（EPS）增长率差距正逐渐缩小。这并非减持美国市场的理由，但确实表明，在其他市场中挖掘被低估的机会，可以实现更好的多样化配置，并提升风险调整后的收益。欧洲市场在利润增长前景上仍显疲弱（见图8），主要受制于经济环境和行业结构的限制。

从市盈率和盈利增长预期（见图9）来看，美国股市的高估值仍具合理性，这也是其维持溢价的核心支撑。

过去，全球资金流动明显偏向美国市场，而其他市场则相对被忽视。这种趋势背后有其充分理由，但目前，一些市场的相对折价正突显出潜在机会。适当扩大投资配置范围，有望提升整体投资组合的风险调整后回报。

6. The China policy stimulus has improved the prospects for China equities, notwithstanding the powerful rally they have staged. Despite significant structural issues (the property market, demographics, debt levels, low domestic consumption, geopolitical tensions), valuations remain relatively attractive (11.3x P/E) given there is some upside risk to earnings (see Asia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy: China changes the game, 5 October 2024). Our Asia strategists estimate a further 15-20% potential upside in China from current levels and have upgraded their MXAPJ 12m index target to 690 (previously 630), implying a 16% USD total 12m return. Similarly, the EM team upgraded their MSCI EM target to 1,300. In Japan, we think the recent correction offers a better entry point. Our 12-month TOPIX target remains at 2,900, with 16% USD total return potential upside, driven by solid EPS growth and some valuation expansion, with particular opportunities in domestic demand stocks, small/mid caps, and quality Growth stocks.

In Europe, while earnings growth remains lacklustre, selective opportunities for diversification exist within a global portfolio. On a sector comparison, stocks in Europe trade on much bigger discounts than they have typically done in the past (Exhibit 11). This is not a good reason to be overweight the index, but suggests hidden value in some areas (Exhibit 9), both in globally positioned growth compounders (Technology and Healthcare, for example), as well as in selected Value areas of the market, such as Banks, where shareholder returns are rising. Overall, we continue to see benefits from international diversification and remain Neutral across regions on a 12m horizon – for 3m, we are OW US and Asian equities, N Japan, and UW Europe. See GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator: From rates to growth – pro-risk with hedges into year-end also published today.

中国政策刺激带动市场机会，其他地区也有亮点

中国近期推出的政策刺激措施改善了本地股市的前景，尽管此前市场已经经历过一轮反弹。中国仍面临诸多结构性问题，如房地产市场压力、人口结构变化、高债务水平、内需疲弱以及地缘政治紧张，但目前的估值（市盈率为11.3倍）仍具有吸引力，尤其在盈利方面可能还有进一步上行空间。

我们的亚洲策略团队预计，中国市场从当前水平起仍有15%-20%的潜在上涨空间，并将MSCI亚太（不含日本）指数的12个月目标上调至690点（此前为630点），这意味着美元计总回报可能达到16%。此外，新兴市场团队也上调了MSCI新兴市场指数的目标至1300点。

日本方面，近期的市场调整则为投资者提供了更好的入场机会。我们的12个月东证指数（TOPIX）目标维持在2900点，预计美元计总回报潜力可达16%。增长动力主要来自稳健的每股收益（EPS）增长和估值的适度扩张，其中国内需求股、中小盘股和优质成长股尤为值得关注。

在欧洲，盈利增长仍显疲弱，但在全球投资组合中，欧洲市场依然提供了一些分散投资的机会。行业对比显示，欧洲股票估值折价较以往明显扩大（见图11）。虽然这不足以支持加码整体欧洲市场，但某些领域可能存在低估的价值，例如全球定位的成长型企业（如科技和医疗保健），以及部分价值领域的股票（如银行股），这些股票的股东回报正呈上升趋势。

总体来看，国际化分散投资依然具有重要意义。从12个月的角度看，我们对各地区的配置保持中性立场，短期（3个月内）更倾向增持美国和亚洲市场，对日本市场维持中性，而对欧洲市场则保持减持立场。

7. The motivation for diversification is also being driven by the increased concentration at the sector level. The Technology sector has diverged meaningfully from the performance of other sectors since 2010, justified by its prolonged trend of superior profit growth (Exhibit 12). More recently, however, the increasing focus on AI has revealed the growing physical constraints to future growth that this industry faces with its reliance on the roll-out of data centres and on progress towards electrification. Consequently, for the first time for many years, there is a symbiotic relationship between the potential for the Technology sector and growth in some parts of the ‘old economy.’ The prospects for equity returns are no longer a function of whether the sector is classified as Growth or Value; it can be a bit of both.
   

   多元化配置的重要性进一步凸显

多元化配置的重要性日益增加，其中一个主要原因是行业层面的集中度不断上升。自2010年以来，科技行业凭借持续的盈利增长表现显著优于其他行业（见图12）。

不过，随着市场对人工智能（AI）的关注度提升，这一行业也开始面临现实的增长约束。无论是数据中心的建设需求，还是电气化进程的推进，均对其未来发展形成了物理限制。因此，科技行业首次出现了一种新趋势：其增长潜力与部分“传统经济”领域之间开始呈现共生关系。

未来的股票回报将不再简单地由行业被归类为“成长型”或“价值型”决定。它可能同时具备两者的特征。

8. The other challenge for investors is that many equity markets have become increasingly concentrated at the stock level. This is most obvious in the US, where the biggest 10 companies account for around just under 20% of the value of the global equity market (Exhibit 13), and the top 5 companies roughly 15%.

Once again, just as with the outperformance of the US equity market and the Technology sector, this increased concentration has reflected extraordinary profit growth rather than speculative exuberance (Exhibit 14).

Encouragingly, the valuations of large cap Technology remain much lower than we have seen in previous bubble periods (such as the late 1990s Technology bubble, Japan in the late 1980s or the ‘Nifty Fifty’ bubble of the early 1970s). However, many of the dominant Technology companies are shifting away from their capital-light, highly scalable business models and are increasingly capital-heavy (see Global Strategy Paper: AI, to buy or not to buy, that is the question, 5 September 2024). There is rising uncertainty over whether these companies can generate the future returns on these investments that is reflected in their current valuations. History suggests that the companies that build the underlying infrastructure in technology revolutions are often not the main beneficiaries (think of the Telecom companies during the late 1990s compared with the app-based businesses that emerged later and were able to benefit from the capex that had been built and paid for by others). The balance sheets and margins of the dominant companies, together with their competitive ‘moats’, auger well for their ability to sustain good compound returns. However, there is a greater chance that other companies, which can leverage the capex that the pioneers have installed, will be able to grow at a faster rate in the future.

投资者面临的另一个挑战：市场集中度的提升

许多股票市场的集中度正在逐步加大，尤其是在公司层面。美国是最明显的例子，目前市值最大的10家公司约占全球股票市场总值的20%（见图13），而前5大公司则占了大约15%。

与美国股市和科技行业的优异表现类似，这种集中度的上升主要源于这些公司出色的盈利能力，而非投机性泡沫（见图14）。

值得注意的是，这些大型科技公司的估值远低于以往泡沫时期的水平，比如20世纪90年代末的科技泡沫、80年代末的日本股市泡沫，或70年代初的“漂亮50”泡沫。

许多主导性科技公司正在从轻资产、高扩展性的商业模式，向资本密集型模式转型。这一变化带来了新的不确定性：这些公司能否通过当前的投资回报率支撑其估值水平？

这种转型引发了不确定性：这些公司能否通过当前的投资回报来支撑其目前的估值水平？历史经验表明，在技术革命中，建设底层基础设施的公司往往并不是最终的最大受益者。例如，上世纪90年代末，电信公司为互联网时代铺设了大量基础设施，但最终受益的却是那些基于这些基础设施发展的应用型公司。

目前的主导性科技公司凭借稳健的资产负债表、高利润率和显著的竞争优势（“护城河”），仍有能力持续实现稳定的复合回报。但更大的机会或许在于那些能够充分利用这些资本支出成果的企业，它们可能以更快的速度成长。

9. With the prospect of positive but slower equity index returns, we continue to focus on ways for investors to enhance risk-adjusted returns through diversification and a focus on compounding over time – either through quality Growth companies that reinvest at a high rate, or through Value companies that are able to compound shareholder returns through a combination of buybacks and dividend growth. Such an eclectic mix would mark a departure from the trends that have dominated since the financial crisis. In the post financial crisis decade, up until the start of the pandemic, asset returns were highly bifurcated; financial assets sharply outperformed real assets. Wages, real estate prices and inflation remained subdued; ever-lower interest rates boosted financial asset valuations and returns. The best-performing markets were long duration Growth assets – Technology, the Nasdaq, the ‘growth’ factor, and high yield credit. The worst-performing were either Value assets, or ‘real’ assets such as gold and commodities (Exhibit 15).

The pattern reversed in 2022 as global inflation and rising rates upended the relationships. Real asset prices outpaced financial assets (which de-rated under the weight of higher yields). The best-performing financial assets were Value-exposed – gold, commodities, and Japan – while the worst-performing were longer duration and Growth stocks (Exhibit 16).

Since October 2023, when investors turned more optimistic of a ‘Fed Pivot’, the ‘winners’ have been a more eclectic mix (Exhibit 17). Gold has performed strongly alongside the Nasdaq and EM equities, while the gap between Growth and Value has narrowed. Bonds have performed poorly and real economy assets have lagged behind as inflation has started to moderate. Among the best-performing equities we have seen an unusual mix of Technology, Real Estate, Utilities and European Banks.

在回报放缓的环境下，多元化和复利是关键

随着股票指数的回报预期虽然保持正增长但开始放缓的背景下，我们认为，投资者需要更多关注通过多元化配置和复利效应来提高风险调整后的收益。可以选择高质量的成长型公司，它们能以高比例进行再投资；也可以关注价值型公司，这类公司通过股票回购和分红为股东创造复利回报。这种多元化的投资方式，与金融危机以来的单一投资趋势有所不同。

回顾金融危机后的十多年（直到疫情爆发前），资产回报呈现高度分化。金融资产远远跑赢了实物资产，比如工资、房地产价格和通胀一直处于低位，而利率的不断下行推动了金融资产的估值和收益。当时的赢家是那些“长久期”的成长型资产，如科技股、纳斯达克指数、“成长”因子以及高收益信用债。而表现最差的则是价值型资产，以及黄金和商品等实物资产（见图15）。

这种趋势在2022年发生了逆转。随着全球通胀和利率上升，市场逻辑被彻底打破：实物资产的表现开始超过金融资产，而金融资产因收益率上升压力被重新定价。当年的赢家变成了价值型资产，比如黄金、商品和日本股市；而长久期成长型股票成了最大的输家（见图16）。

自2023年10月以来，市场的赢家组合变得更复杂。随着投资者对美联储可能“转向”的预期升温，资产表现变得更加多样化（见图17）。黄金继续强势，纳斯达克指数和新兴市场股票也有亮眼表现。同时成长型和价值型资产的差距逐渐缩小。债券依然表现不佳，而随着通胀缓解，实体经济相关的资产也有所回落。在表现最好的股票中，出现了一个有趣的组合：科技股、房地产股、公用事业股和欧洲银行股。

10. We currently favour several strategies to reflect this more eclectic market environment while also increasing diversification to enhance forward risk-adjusted returns. First, the Technology sector in the US has seen huge inflows year to date.

We think diversification to complement Technology makes sense. We identified a list of Ex Tech Compounders (ETCs). This list is well diversified across sector and regions. These companies share similar characteristics with the Big Tech, but without the idiosyncratic risks of heavy concentration or antitrust regulation. This list of ETCs have performed in line with Global Tech over the past three years, but have been less volatile, helping to boost the Sharpe ratio and mitigate risks as volatility picks up. Despite a premium, the valuation of these companies is in line with its average since 2016 and trades at the lowest premium to the world stock market since 2018 (Exhibit 19).

Second, in the US, our strategy team continues to focus on more market broadening with mid caps being in the ‘sweet spot‘ of higher growth but with lower valuations and higher leverage than large caps, making them a bigger beneficiary of lower interest rates. Third, in Europe, we continue to prefer a selective ‘barbell’ approach between Growth stocks (such as Technology or Healthcare) and Value stocks (such as Banks and Telecoms). Fourth, in Asia, we like stocks that should benefit from the positive effects of China’s economic easing and equity rebound: our APJ China Sales Exposure basket (GSSZAPCN) and Defence stocks.

多元化策略应对多变市场环境

在当前多变的市场环境中，通过多元化配置应对风险是提升未来回报的重要策略。以下是我们建议的几种方法：

1. 为科技板块配置补充资产

今年以来，美国科技板块吸引了大量资金流入。但仅依赖科技板块可能存在集中度过高的风险，因此为其配置补充性的多元化资产是明智之举。我们筛选了一份“非科技复合增长股”（Ex Tech Compounders，简称ETCs）的名单。这些公司分布于多个行业和地区，具有类似大型科技公司的增长特征，但不会因集中度或反垄断问题受到限制。在过去三年中，这些ETCs的表现与全球科技股相当，但波动性更低，提升了夏普比率并在市场波动时有效降低了风险。尽管它们的估值略有溢价，但与2016年以来的平均水平一致，相较全球股市的估值溢价也已降至2018年以来的最低水平（见图19）。

2. 关注美国市场的中型股

在美国市场，我们更关注中型股的机会。中型股处于“黄金位置”，增长潜力高、估值相对较低，同时杠杆率高于大盘股，这使它们在利率下降的环境中受益更多。

3. 在欧洲采用杠铃式策略

在欧洲市场，我们建议采用“杠铃式”策略，平衡配置成长型股票（如科技和医疗保健）与价值型股票（如银行和电信），以捕捉两类资产的不同优势。

4. 挖掘亚洲市场机会

在亚洲市场，我们看好能够受益于中国经济宽松政策和股市反弹的股票，例如我们追踪的“APJ中国销售敞口篮子”（GSSZAPCN）以及与国防相关的股票。

内容原载于: 行业调研报告